What readily comes to mind are the lyrics of the famous Frank Sinatra song.
Watching the "falling leaves drift by the window … I see your lips, the summer
kisses/The sunburned hands I used to hold …"
These wistful lines of infinite longing tinged by nostalgia would
characterize the American feelings as India's dalliance with China gets
seriously under way on Wednesday afternoon on the banks of the ancient Sabarmati
river in the western state of Gujarat where Chinese president Xi Jinping arrives
and India's prime minister Narendra Modi is at hand to receive him personally.
Wednesday also happens to be Modi's birthday and Gujarat is his home state
and the symbolism of what Xi is doing cannot be lost on the American mind.
The widespread expectation in India and abroad had been that the government
led by Modi would maintain "continuity" in India's foreign policy.
That was expected to be in the direction of galvanizing further India's
tilt toward the United States through the past decade of rule under Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh's leadership, who was acclaimed to be the most
"pro-American" leader India ever had since it became independent 67 years ago.
As recently as end-July, the new External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj
affirmed, "We think that foreign policy is in continuity. Foreign policy does
not change with the change in the government."
Indeed, India's political culture seldom admits abrupt policy shifts.
Maturity and sobriety are synonymous with continuity in the Indian culture,
imbued with respect for the past.
However, one hundred days into the Modi government, it is becoming
impossible to maintain the fa?ade.
Navigating through three high-level exchanges in rapid succession through
September - with Japan, China and the United States - Modi is casting away
rather summarily the lingering pretensions as if dead leaves in an autumnal
month.
Modi's compulsive innovation is self-evident. Some of it may be organic,
seasonal, locally sourced and even ethnically produced, but the pride in making
the events stand out from the past is unmistakable - such as the stunning
decision to receive Xi Jinping at Ahmedabad airport.
It seems those who spoke about 'continuity' didn't know Modi's mind, while
he himself has not cared to present a doctrinaire foreign policy.
But then, this is still work in progress and Modi cannot be faulted for not
explaining his road map. Besides, he's taciturn by nature - except when inspired
by the sight of India's teeming millions.
Modi has gleefully inherited the two key anchor sheets of India's foreign
policy - primacy on economic diplomacy and strategic autonomy.
On the other hand, under him, there has been a discernible shift in
deploying strategic autonomy no longer as a 'stand-alone' pillar but as
purposive underpinning for economic diplomacy.
Second, Modi has sifted the locus of economic diplomacy - and India's
leanings toward the Western world that went under that rubric through the past
decade in foreign policy domain - away from the West to Asia.
Modi is due to visit the US in exactly twelve days from now. But there is
nothing of the American rhetoric that used to mark a Manmohan Singh visit to the
White House.
An idea was thought of initially to propitiate Modi by granting him the
privilege of addressing the US Congress. But it has been quietly shelved.
All this certainly needs some explanation.
The heart of the matter is that there had been a pronounced
'militarization' of India's strategic outlook through the past 10-15 years,
which was a period of high growth in the economy that seemed to last forever.
In those halcyon days, geopolitics took over strategic discourses and
pundits reveled in notions of India's joint responsibility with the United
States, the sole superpower, to secure the global commons and the
'Indo-Pacific'.
The underlying sense of rivalry with China - couched in
'cooperation-cum-competition', a diplomatic idiom borrowed from the Americans -
was barely hidden.
Then came the financial crisis and the Great Recession of 2008 that exposed
real weaknesses in the Western economic and political models and cast misgivings
about their long-term potentials.
Indeed, not only did the financial crisis showcase that China and other
emerging economies could weather the storm better than western developed
economies but were actually thriving.
The emerging market economies such as India, Brazil or Indonesia began to
look at China with renewed interest, tinged with an element of envy.
Suffice to say, there has been an erosion of confidence in the Western
economic system and the Washington Consensus that attracted Manmohan Singh.
From a security-standpoint, this slowed down the India-US 'strategic
partnership'. The blame for stagnation has been unfairly put on the shoulders of
a "distracted" and dispirited Barack Obama administration and a 'timid' and
unimaginative Manmohan Singh government.
Whereas, what happened was something long-term - the ideology prevalent in
India during much of the United Progressive Alliance rule, namely, that the
Western style institutions and governments are the key to development in
emerging economies, itself got fundamentally tarnished.
What we in India overlook is that the 2008 financial crisis has also been a
crisis of Western-style democracy. There has been a breakdown of faith in the
Western economic and political models.
In the Indian context, the growing dysfunction of governance, widening
disparity in income and the rising youth employment combined to create a sense
of gloom and drift as to what democracy can offer and it in turn galvanized the
demand for change.
Curiously, through all this, it became evident that the mixed economies and
'non-democratic' political systems, especially China, weathered the storm far
better. Indeed, Modi visited China no less than four times during this period.
Image and reality
Something also needs to be said in this backdrop about Modi's intriguing
political personality. He is not really the one-dimensional man that he is made
out to be.
The mismatch between image and reality is creating problems for his
detractors and acolytes alike in this past 100-day period of his stewardship.
And as time passes, it may become increasingly difficult for the Left to
demonize him, or for the Far Right to perform liturgical rites to this
celebrant.
Modi's non-elitist social background, his intimate familiarity with the
ugliness and humiliation of poverty and ignorance, his intuitive knowledge of
the Indian people and above all his keen sense of destiny ("God chooses certain
people to do the difficult work. I believe god has chosen me for this work.") -
all this comes into play here, setting him apart from his predecessors in
India's ruling elite.
By no means was it accidental that he highlighted human dignity as a vector
of development in his famous Independence Day speech in New Delhi on August 15.
Nor is it to be overlooked that his emphasis is on attracting as much
foreign investment as possible for projects that could create large-scale job
opportunities for the people while pointedly ignoring the WalMart as India's
pilot project for attracting foreign investment.
One of the early foreign-policy decisions taken by Modi - interestingly,
soon after his return from the BRICS summit at Brazil in July - was to draw the
'red line' on how far India would go in accommodating the West's desperate
full-throttle push for a new WTO regime.
Modi has so far held on to the firm line that India cannot be party to a
trade regime that doesn't adequately safeguard India's food security. The fact
is, the lives of several hundreds millions of Indians hang by this slender
thread of the government subsidy for food distribution.
The Americans were stunned, because he was meant to be a darling of the
multi-national companies and corporate industry and not a 'populist' leader
catering to the masses. But Modi remained adamant.
The bitterness comes out in the blistering attacks since then in the
Western media about Modi. The Financial Times wrote in the weekend that the
MNCs' "honeymoon" with Modi is over.
In sum, Modi visualizes Asian partners to be much more meaningful
interlocutors at this point in time for meeting India's needs. Modi believes
what he said in Tokyo recently, "if the 21st century is an Asian century, then
Asia's future direction will shape the destiny of the world."
China seizes the day
China has shrewdly assessed Modi's national priorities and sees in them a
window of opportunity to transform the relationship with India into one of
genuine partnership.
In comparison, Japan stalks China wherever the latter goes, but its actual
capacity to match China is in serious doubt. Also, in the ultimate analysis,
Japanese businessmen go only when conditions are perfect - unlike his Chinese or
South Korean counterparts.
As for the US and the European countries, they are yet to figure out a way
to catch Modi's attention span with an idea that is attuned to his development
agenda.
In any case, the Western economies are still on recovery path and their
interest in the Indian market has traditionally devolved upon boosting their own
civil or military exports, rather than help India build its manufacturing
industry or develop its infrastructure.
In sum, neither the Western countries nor Japan can hope to match the scale
of involvement that China is offering - setting up industrial parks, making the
creaking Indian railway system work and so on.
The Chinese offer to invest US$50 billion in the first instance for the
upgrade of the Indian railways speaks for itself.
Put differently, Modi has redefined India's strategic autonomy.
In the changed circumstances, strategic autonomy goes far beyond a matter
of India's aversion toward 'bloc mentality' or, specifically speaking, its
diffidence in the authenticity and sustainability of the US rebalance in its
Asian strategy.
It may seem a paradox but under Modi, strategic autonomy increasingly
presents itself as the key underpinning to create a level playing field for
India's partnership with China.
Make no mistake, the opening up of sensitive sectors like railways or ports
for the Chinese companies demands a certain security mindset and Modi is surely
taking a leap of faith.
The best outcome will be that as India and China get engaged deeply and
extensively, they realize that they indeed have so very much in common by way of
shared interest while clawing their way up on the greasy pole of the world
order, where the lessons of history amply testify that established powers do not
easily concede space to newcomers.
On the other hand, an irreducible minimum would also be that India and
China settle pragmatically for maintaining peace and tranquility at all costs on
their disputed borders without which a smooth and steady expansion of fruitful
cooperation becomes problematic.
Therefore, Modi is justified in calculating that either way India is a net
beneficiary in this historic gambit to break fresh ground with China. It is,
actually, a 'win-win' gambit.
To be sure, there are obstacles. The Indian bureaucracy, the defense and
security establishment, right wing nationalists and a public weaned on official
propaganda regarding the border dispute - these constituents look startled and
disoriented.
But then, on India's political horizon if there is any leader who can
force-march them, it is Modi. What gives hope is that his own leadership is
vitally linked to his capacity to deliver on the economic front.
Indeed, if he succeeds, India's foreign policies will have changed beyond
recognition.
Audacious expectations
The new stirrings already speculate on a border settlement with China in a
conceivable future. Up until four months ago, this would have seemed audacious,
given that the border dispute is a highly complicated backlog of past and
current history. Bold ideas are often born that way.
Evidently, all this will not mean that history has ended. The Indian and
Chinese models of development will forever present a fascinating study in
comparison and contrast.
The modernization of India's military can be trusted to remain a continuing
priority even if the country faces no danger of external aggression.
Equally, India will continue to diversify its external relations and will
not put all its eggs in the Chinese basket in the Asia-Pacific.
Most certainly, India's belief that it has a leadership role to play in its
region is not going to be bartered away.
However, the bottom line is that these templates of foreign policy could
become truly relevant only if the country got rid of the curse of poverty.
India's influence in the region and its standing as a global player would
ultimately depend on its comprehensive national strength and the example it sets
as a peace-loving emerging power by creating a just and fair society.
Thus, through a corridor of time spanning a decade or two at any rate, the
development agenda should get unquestioned primacy. This is where Modi is
far-sighted in reorienting India's foreign policy.
A big question remains: Will Modi be allowed to get away with his road map
for India? The history of the modern world is replete with instances of
predatory capitalism by the Western world interfering, if need be, to enforce
course correction in developing countries that show signs of deviation.
India, again, is a very big fish in the pond and cannot be allowed to get
way easily.
(othernews)
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